meridiani.planum
10-07 05:28 PM
I have built a very simple EB2-I Visa predition model
Making following assumption
15000 new EB2 ROW I-485 applications
12000 new EB1 I-485 applications
EB4/EB5 use 70% of allocated visa (30% spillover)
EB2 Visa Bulletin prediction for FY 2010
Bulletin Quarterly-spillover Annual Spillover
Oct-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
Nov-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
Dec-09 31-Mar-2005 1-Feb-2005
Jan-10 31-Mar-2005 15-Feb-2005
Feb-10 31-Mar-2005 31-Mar-2005
Mar-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
Apr-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
May-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
Jun-10 15-Oct-2006 31-Mar-2005
Jul-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Sep-2005
Aug-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Apr-2007
Sep-10 31-Mar-2007 30-May-2007
3rd Q spillover numbers are too optimistic. 2006 alone has ~20k pending EB2I. you are assuming whole of that, plus 1 quarter eachfrom 05 and 07?
Making following assumption
15000 new EB2 ROW I-485 applications
12000 new EB1 I-485 applications
EB4/EB5 use 70% of allocated visa (30% spillover)
EB2 Visa Bulletin prediction for FY 2010
Bulletin Quarterly-spillover Annual Spillover
Oct-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
Nov-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
Dec-09 31-Mar-2005 1-Feb-2005
Jan-10 31-Mar-2005 15-Feb-2005
Feb-10 31-Mar-2005 31-Mar-2005
Mar-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
Apr-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
May-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
Jun-10 15-Oct-2006 31-Mar-2005
Jul-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Sep-2005
Aug-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Apr-2007
Sep-10 31-Mar-2007 30-May-2007
3rd Q spillover numbers are too optimistic. 2006 alone has ~20k pending EB2I. you are assuming whole of that, plus 1 quarter eachfrom 05 and 07?
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jonty_11
06-28 12:34 PM
Another rumour is that this rumour abt mid month retro is being spread by lawyers..so that self-filers rush to file and make obvious mistakes and have to hire services of immi lawyers second time around.....!!!
nixstor
07-03 04:14 PM
Wrote to Jennifer Ludden at NPR who regularly reports on immigration
email addresses are first name initial followed by lastname at npr dot org, if you would like to write
email addresses are first name initial followed by lastname at npr dot org, if you would like to write
2011 2000 Nissan Quest Photo 9
chmur
02-13 12:18 AM
I think the entire community should align behind Administrative reforms with a laser-focus. This initiative is a digression.
IV has had it's own share of success with it's approach. No other methods have succeeded so far .
Also, from my little IV volunteering experience I can vouch that our community has very high inertia and is difficult to organize. people are afraid to send letters to president...good luck in getting them to sue USCIS.
community does not have the bandwidth to take multiple initiatives.
I see no wisdom in doing this. USCIS/DOS can screw us worse , if they wish to . This is not being timid but being pragmatic...anyway the bravado talk also needs to be followed up by multiple clear paths to victory.
IV has had it's own share of success with it's approach. No other methods have succeeded so far .
Also, from my little IV volunteering experience I can vouch that our community has very high inertia and is difficult to organize. people are afraid to send letters to president...good luck in getting them to sue USCIS.
community does not have the bandwidth to take multiple initiatives.
I see no wisdom in doing this. USCIS/DOS can screw us worse , if they wish to . This is not being timid but being pragmatic...anyway the bravado talk also needs to be followed up by multiple clear paths to victory.
more...
alwayson
03-14 09:34 AM
I did my Candian PR through this firm
http://www.canadavisa.com/
Very professional. Timely communication.
http://www.canadavisa.com/
Very professional. Timely communication.
dealsnet
03-30 01:26 PM
You are correct. No one is good enought to govern. All of them are corrupt or their pary is corrupt. Any one can become PM, nothing will change. May be some one like Mahatma Gandhi come and govern our motherland. Just a wish.
I am just wondering.....
when will the day come when a lot of us will rush to Delhi.....braving the cold/heat....stand for hours........dancing to tunes of pop singers......while awaiting our beloved PM to show up and take oath of office........just like hundreds of thousands did when obama took office.........
I am just wondering.....
will any one of us spend money to travel to Delhi to witness the next swearing cermony, assuming it where held in an open place, lets say raj ghat or something like that.
I am wondering.....
when will that charismatic leader (with really good intentions and sence of direction) emerge? from, a billion? Why is it taking so long? Is the whole germ pool spoiled? why dont we get the good ones to lead such populated nations? I dont have a clue about where and with whom the problem lies....
I am just wondering.....
when will the day come when a lot of us will rush to Delhi.....braving the cold/heat....stand for hours........dancing to tunes of pop singers......while awaiting our beloved PM to show up and take oath of office........just like hundreds of thousands did when obama took office.........
I am just wondering.....
will any one of us spend money to travel to Delhi to witness the next swearing cermony, assuming it where held in an open place, lets say raj ghat or something like that.
I am wondering.....
when will that charismatic leader (with really good intentions and sence of direction) emerge? from, a billion? Why is it taking so long? Is the whole germ pool spoiled? why dont we get the good ones to lead such populated nations? I dont have a clue about where and with whom the problem lies....
more...
eb3retro
07-30 04:40 PM
Lot of Amway guys are hiding among us.
There are lot of Amway guys on this thread making fun of Amway because they fear being ridiculed. But in their real lives they are actually doing Amway business and catching other desis in Walmarts.
This explains why I got so many reds and bad comments after starting this thread.
here you go..this dude is back ranting again..
There are lot of Amway guys on this thread making fun of Amway because they fear being ridiculed. But in their real lives they are actually doing Amway business and catching other desis in Walmarts.
This explains why I got so many reds and bad comments after starting this thread.
here you go..this dude is back ranting again..
2010 Sunset Red 2000 Nissan Quest
svr_76
05-12 02:13 PM
I think this forum is the wrong place to discuss any of this. The thread must be deleted.
more...
chanduv23
02-13 11:50 AM
We have three now and atleast 8 who supported this issue on the thread
I would be the happiest person seeing this :)
Lets add a poll - we want honest takers on this poll.
Thread starter - please post a poll
I would be the happiest person seeing this :)
Lets add a poll - we want honest takers on this poll.
Thread starter - please post a poll
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vdlrao
09-15 03:19 PM
Vdlrao,
You are admired a lot for bringing in hope for lot of people with your EB2 prediction thread, can you jump in and throw some numbers here please if you think the numbers quoted are out of way, i understand this is time consuming but since you already did your homework last time around it should take you few minutes to come up with some realistic numbers.
Hi ocpmachine,
I dont know the exact Eb2 India labors certified for the given years. But initially I assumed that Eb2 India would be almost current or in the worst case it would cross 2006 because of the spill over. Because I assumed and hoped very high on the spill over numbers. But in reality the spill overs also didnt make a big impact in the EB2 India movement. See the previous visa bulletins you could find that Eb2 is is in the middle of 2004 in the year of 2005 itself. Since 2005 to 2007 its there in 2004 many times.
But in 2008 and 2009 EB2 India got the maximum share of the spill over visas. But still the dates are in the first month of 2005. So hardly EB2 India moved forward about 6 months to 9 months in the duration of 2008 and 2009 with the help of spill overs. That too in this bad economy where there would be comparatively less labors applied than the previous years.
So I am expecting a steady and consistent forward movement of EB2 India but not a quick jumps of couple of years in single bulletin.
I hope it makes clear to everybody. And all we need is an EB immigration reform.
You are admired a lot for bringing in hope for lot of people with your EB2 prediction thread, can you jump in and throw some numbers here please if you think the numbers quoted are out of way, i understand this is time consuming but since you already did your homework last time around it should take you few minutes to come up with some realistic numbers.
Hi ocpmachine,
I dont know the exact Eb2 India labors certified for the given years. But initially I assumed that Eb2 India would be almost current or in the worst case it would cross 2006 because of the spill over. Because I assumed and hoped very high on the spill over numbers. But in reality the spill overs also didnt make a big impact in the EB2 India movement. See the previous visa bulletins you could find that Eb2 is is in the middle of 2004 in the year of 2005 itself. Since 2005 to 2007 its there in 2004 many times.
But in 2008 and 2009 EB2 India got the maximum share of the spill over visas. But still the dates are in the first month of 2005. So hardly EB2 India moved forward about 6 months to 9 months in the duration of 2008 and 2009 with the help of spill overs. That too in this bad economy where there would be comparatively less labors applied than the previous years.
So I am expecting a steady and consistent forward movement of EB2 India but not a quick jumps of couple of years in single bulletin.
I hope it makes clear to everybody. And all we need is an EB immigration reform.
more...
walking_dude
02-13 12:59 PM
On the contrary, fight for keeping the country limits will kill the movement as Indians who form more than 80% of IV will feel disillusioned and leave. Once that happens ROW can as well kiss the GC increase good bye.
Like grupak mentioned real workable solution is 1) Increase overall numbers (will benefit ROW as well as oversubscribed countries) 2) Eliminate the meaningless country quota. If there is an increase in overall numbers removal of country quotas will have very low impact on ROW. This is the fact.
But there are still some fanatics who pick up fights to keep the country quotas intact. If all of them quit IV damage will still be minimum, when compared to Indians (80% of IV) leaving. Movement will survive and thrive. How many ROW were there at DC rally? Of those present, half were on the stage. Of course I'm exaggerating, but not by much.
My challenge to ROW members who keep on harping about the split in the movement - PARTICIPATE!! Just being active on the forum and posting a hundred posts doesn't make you part of the movement. I hardly see many ROW members volunteering or accepting leadership roles. Unlike EB immigration, IV is open to everyone no matter where you were born. We don't have any 7% quota per country ! And yet, why are the active volunteers, leadership, contributors - the REAL movement- is disproportinately Indian.
Want to influence the movement, be a significant part of it. That's real democracy.
A row — also called a record or tuple—represents a single, implicitly structured data item in a table :) (I think the discussion becomes too hot, time to cool down, folks. The solution is not to remove per country limits, but to increase EB quota or at least to recapture lost visa numbers. Fight for removing per country limits will divide IV and is very unlikely to achieve something.)
Like grupak mentioned real workable solution is 1) Increase overall numbers (will benefit ROW as well as oversubscribed countries) 2) Eliminate the meaningless country quota. If there is an increase in overall numbers removal of country quotas will have very low impact on ROW. This is the fact.
But there are still some fanatics who pick up fights to keep the country quotas intact. If all of them quit IV damage will still be minimum, when compared to Indians (80% of IV) leaving. Movement will survive and thrive. How many ROW were there at DC rally? Of those present, half were on the stage. Of course I'm exaggerating, but not by much.
My challenge to ROW members who keep on harping about the split in the movement - PARTICIPATE!! Just being active on the forum and posting a hundred posts doesn't make you part of the movement. I hardly see many ROW members volunteering or accepting leadership roles. Unlike EB immigration, IV is open to everyone no matter where you were born. We don't have any 7% quota per country ! And yet, why are the active volunteers, leadership, contributors - the REAL movement- is disproportinately Indian.
Want to influence the movement, be a significant part of it. That's real democracy.
A row — also called a record or tuple—represents a single, implicitly structured data item in a table :) (I think the discussion becomes too hot, time to cool down, folks. The solution is not to remove per country limits, but to increase EB quota or at least to recapture lost visa numbers. Fight for removing per country limits will divide IV and is very unlikely to achieve something.)
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snathan
01-15 04:03 PM
No this rule is not against the H1B. Kindly read the rule. This rule is against body shopper and who do all kind of illegal activities. No pay on bench, 80-20 , no LCA ,no value addition etc etc. Their whole existence was questionable from day one. Why don't they do the same business with GC holder or US citizen ? Because they are not required in food chain of consulting. Period. Check out people from one state of India buy H1b . I will use the word buy. It's like buying air ticket along with visa fees to come to usa. USCIS is nailing there.
Do you think that purchasing H1B visa is Okay as per us rules ? It was never legal. It is not that they made a new law or changed a rule. They just said , we know where was the hole and they put some bricks there. So your logic they will do to EAD and GC is pure speculation. Yes during second world war they arrested people with Japanese connection.
They have not banned H1B . Period. Why I am happy ? Because now there will be direct relation between job and H1B. No illusion of fake job. Second, now only good companies will be their ( Accenture , deloitte ) and they will need H1b consultant. Mark my word, US companies can not live without H1B and they will hire H1b directly and will sponsor them.
These companies will never bill below a low limit. The Indian body shop and their gulam agree for any rate ( yes even10$/hr for tester job ) and kills the market. It will usher a new era ( good ) for H1B. Due to these cheap desi dallas real companies never felt the need for sponsoring H1B. In my own case , the client did not give offer to perm because I was cheaper in contract to them. Finally when I resigned and on last day of my 2 week notice period client offered me to sponsor H1B. I refused as some one else had already filed my H1b and I continued there. I am happy for the beginning of this new body shop free time.
What about the legitimate people who didnt buy the visa and due to USCIS, struck in GC black hole...? Do you have any way to segregate bad apple from good one. You just want to throw the baby with bath water. Period.
Do you think that purchasing H1B visa is Okay as per us rules ? It was never legal. It is not that they made a new law or changed a rule. They just said , we know where was the hole and they put some bricks there. So your logic they will do to EAD and GC is pure speculation. Yes during second world war they arrested people with Japanese connection.
They have not banned H1B . Period. Why I am happy ? Because now there will be direct relation between job and H1B. No illusion of fake job. Second, now only good companies will be their ( Accenture , deloitte ) and they will need H1b consultant. Mark my word, US companies can not live without H1B and they will hire H1b directly and will sponsor them.
These companies will never bill below a low limit. The Indian body shop and their gulam agree for any rate ( yes even10$/hr for tester job ) and kills the market. It will usher a new era ( good ) for H1B. Due to these cheap desi dallas real companies never felt the need for sponsoring H1B. In my own case , the client did not give offer to perm because I was cheaper in contract to them. Finally when I resigned and on last day of my 2 week notice period client offered me to sponsor H1B. I refused as some one else had already filed my H1b and I continued there. I am happy for the beginning of this new body shop free time.
What about the legitimate people who didnt buy the visa and due to USCIS, struck in GC black hole...? Do you have any way to segregate bad apple from good one. You just want to throw the baby with bath water. Period.
more...
house 2000 Nissan Quest Photo 1 2000 Nissan Quest Photo 2
JA1HIND
02-15 08:12 AM
........I strongly beleive that the H1B system and the EB greencard system has been setup to legally bring in high skilled workers as slaves and exploit them by taking away their freedom. We are no better than illegals, in the way we are treated by the goverment and the employers.
I will fight this case atleast to try to prove my point before I leave this place.
I am looking for some civil rights agency which can help me with the lawsuit. My fight is not for the GC, but it is for justice.
Very well said & I just feel the same...I have already lost hope on this GC and can not predict how long its going to take but for sure before I leave this place and go back to home country I will contribute my best of share in this fight for justice and full support...count me in with out any doubt!!
I will fight this case atleast to try to prove my point before I leave this place.
I am looking for some civil rights agency which can help me with the lawsuit. My fight is not for the GC, but it is for justice.
Very well said & I just feel the same...I have already lost hope on this GC and can not predict how long its going to take but for sure before I leave this place and go back to home country I will contribute my best of share in this fight for justice and full support...count me in with out any doubt!!
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gimme_GC2006
09-04 01:59 PM
I have no words to say about this incident.
I dont like YSR or as a matter of fact any politician.
All these helping poor people is a bullshit argument.
Free power, free health insurance, free this..free that..at whose expense??
he probably bankrupted GOVT (along with his buddy CBN).
I am glad that we have one less bad guy..more to go.
I dont like YSR or as a matter of fact any politician.
All these helping poor people is a bullshit argument.
Free power, free health insurance, free this..free that..at whose expense??
he probably bankrupted GOVT (along with his buddy CBN).
I am glad that we have one less bad guy..more to go.
more...
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jonty_11
06-28 12:34 PM
Another rumour is that this rumour abt mid month retro is being spread by lawyers..so that self-filers rush to file and make obvious mistakes and have to hire services of immi lawyers second time around.....!!!
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gbof
09-15 01:22 PM
Doing it in the lat quarter could cuase visa wastage especially this year where it is anticiapted that there will be lot of spill over numbers.
Now, with vast majority (if not almost all) of 07 petitions pre-adjudicated and waiting for visa #s for approvals, it is hard for uscis to wait up-to-end-of-the-year for spill over. Current economy only suggest fewer GC applicants in 09 and 2010
Now, with vast majority (if not almost all) of 07 petitions pre-adjudicated and waiting for visa #s for approvals, it is hard for uscis to wait up-to-end-of-the-year for spill over. Current economy only suggest fewer GC applicants in 09 and 2010
more...
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redcard
09-04 11:13 AM
Wow!!! this is just crazy>>>
Over 100 die after YSR's death, son appeals for calm- Hindustan Times (http://www.hindustantimes.com/Over-100-die-after-YSR-s-death-son-appeals-for-calm/H1-Article3-450319.aspx)
As many as 122 people across Andhra Pradesh reportedly died of shock or committed suicide after the death of their chief minister YS Rajasekhara Reddy, prompting his MP son YS Jaganmohan Reddy to appeal to the people to be stoic and brave.
"I appeal to all of you to be stoic and brave in this hour of tragedy. He (YSR) wanted to see a smile on the faces of all and if you resort to such things (suicide) this will hurt him," said Jaganmohan, trying hard to control his tears.
"He used to smile even in difficult times and I am sure he is still smiling. I request you to follow his principle and not to commit suicide as this will not give him peace," said Jaganmohan, who was elected to the Lok Sabha from Kadapa in the April-May elections and is being seen by many as the next chief minister.
The appeal before the camera was telecast on all Telugu television channels.
Television channels estimated that 122 people died of shock on hearing the news of their leader's death in a horrific air crash on Thursday, or committed suicide unable to bear the loss. Most of those who died of shock were keenly following TV news channels ever since his chopper went missing early on Wednesday and then received the news of his death on Thursday.
NTV, a Telugu channel, reported that 122 people have died since Thursday morning when YSR's body was found. It said 99 people died of shock while 23 committed suicide.
However, there was no independent confirmation of this. The police here said they did not have any figures to confirm this report.
This is the first time in the state's history that such a large number of people have died over the death of any political leader.
YSR, as the late leader was popularly known, has surpassed in death the popularity of actor and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) founder NT Rama Rao who died in 1996.
A large number of those who died of shock included young supporters of YSR and the beneficiaries of the various welfare schemes launched by him in the last five years.
The deaths were reported from 19 out of 23 districts in the state.
In the coastal district of West Godavari, six people died of shock and four committed suicide.
"YSR dedicated his life to people, I am dedicating my life to him," a youth wrote in his suicide note before consuming pesticide.
A physically handicapped couple, who were getting monthly pension under a welfare scheme, attempted suicide by jumping into the Godavari river but were saved by fishermen.
In Hyderabad, 42-year-old Yadgiri died of shock while watching news of YSR's death on television. M Srinivas, 30, another admirer of the chief minister suffered a cardiac arrest.
The charred bodies of YSR and four others were found on Thursday morning in the Nallamala forest in Kurnool district, almost 24 hours after their helicopter went missing.
Over 100 die after YSR's death, son appeals for calm- Hindustan Times (http://www.hindustantimes.com/Over-100-die-after-YSR-s-death-son-appeals-for-calm/H1-Article3-450319.aspx)
As many as 122 people across Andhra Pradesh reportedly died of shock or committed suicide after the death of their chief minister YS Rajasekhara Reddy, prompting his MP son YS Jaganmohan Reddy to appeal to the people to be stoic and brave.
"I appeal to all of you to be stoic and brave in this hour of tragedy. He (YSR) wanted to see a smile on the faces of all and if you resort to such things (suicide) this will hurt him," said Jaganmohan, trying hard to control his tears.
"He used to smile even in difficult times and I am sure he is still smiling. I request you to follow his principle and not to commit suicide as this will not give him peace," said Jaganmohan, who was elected to the Lok Sabha from Kadapa in the April-May elections and is being seen by many as the next chief minister.
The appeal before the camera was telecast on all Telugu television channels.
Television channels estimated that 122 people died of shock on hearing the news of their leader's death in a horrific air crash on Thursday, or committed suicide unable to bear the loss. Most of those who died of shock were keenly following TV news channels ever since his chopper went missing early on Wednesday and then received the news of his death on Thursday.
NTV, a Telugu channel, reported that 122 people have died since Thursday morning when YSR's body was found. It said 99 people died of shock while 23 committed suicide.
However, there was no independent confirmation of this. The police here said they did not have any figures to confirm this report.
This is the first time in the state's history that such a large number of people have died over the death of any political leader.
YSR, as the late leader was popularly known, has surpassed in death the popularity of actor and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) founder NT Rama Rao who died in 1996.
A large number of those who died of shock included young supporters of YSR and the beneficiaries of the various welfare schemes launched by him in the last five years.
The deaths were reported from 19 out of 23 districts in the state.
In the coastal district of West Godavari, six people died of shock and four committed suicide.
"YSR dedicated his life to people, I am dedicating my life to him," a youth wrote in his suicide note before consuming pesticide.
A physically handicapped couple, who were getting monthly pension under a welfare scheme, attempted suicide by jumping into the Godavari river but were saved by fishermen.
In Hyderabad, 42-year-old Yadgiri died of shock while watching news of YSR's death on television. M Srinivas, 30, another admirer of the chief minister suffered a cardiac arrest.
The charred bodies of YSR and four others were found on Thursday morning in the Nallamala forest in Kurnool district, almost 24 hours after their helicopter went missing.
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justAnotherFile
07-12 10:15 PM
byeUSA,
can you send your story to pratik, as requested on homepage. I think yours is a compelling story and will help others in IV even if you have already made your decision
can you send your story to pratik, as requested on homepage. I think yours is a compelling story and will help others in IV even if you have already made your decision
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gc_lover
06-27 03:43 PM
I am sorry to say that all EB-3 and EB-2 dates have gone back to 2001. Please check DOS site.
*******You want rumor.....I will give you rumor ************
We want rumor not heartattack. ;)
*******You want rumor.....I will give you rumor ************
We want rumor not heartattack. ;)
snathan
01-15 10:57 AM
I agree completely. I fail to understand why people are so upset with this development. Your life will be better in the long run. Cant you all see ?
cinqsit
It wont be an issue since you already gor your GC or I-485 filed. I failed to understand still what you are doing here.
cinqsit
It wont be an issue since you already gor your GC or I-485 filed. I failed to understand still what you are doing here.
BharatPremi
12-14 05:46 PM
Then the numbers get distributed among those few countries that produces required skilled labor. To some extent, I thought this is already happening!!:rolleyes:
Imagine the situation 3 countries supplying 90% of required labor and rest of the world 10%... This 7% limit screws things there. If US can find laboe "Equally" from every hemisphere and evry country.. 7% limit will work without a question. Otehrwise it would not work and hurt the economy badly.
Imagine the situation 3 countries supplying 90% of required labor and rest of the world 10%... This 7% limit screws things there. If US can find laboe "Equally" from every hemisphere and evry country.. 7% limit will work without a question. Otehrwise it would not work and hurt the economy badly.
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